@蔡甸人 下一次，要等到2030年！
<section data-role="outer" class="article135" label="edit by 135editor"><p style="text-align:justify;margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">9月29日迎来中秋佳节。《中国天文年历》显示，今年中秋当天可以欣赏到农历八月最圆月，也是年度第三大满月。月圆究竟十五多还是十六多？天文科普专家为您揭秘。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">中国科学院紫金山天文台科普主管王科超说，要搞清月亮几时圆，得从为什么会有盈缺变化说起。月球本身不发光，可以被看见是因为反射了太阳光。随着日、地、月三者相对位置不断变化，从地球上看，月球被太阳照亮的区域也会呈现不同形状，称为月相。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">当月球与太阳的地心视黄经相同，月球运行到地球和太阳之间，这时完全看不到月亮，这一时刻的月相称为“朔”，每一个朔所在的朔日都是农历初一。当月球与太阳的地心视黄经相差180度，地球处在月球和太阳正中间，月球朝向地球的部分被太阳完全照亮，我们会看到满月，这时的月相称为“望”，当天为望日。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">满月发生在哪一日，取决于朔的时刻和朔望的间隔。王科超介绍，从统计学上看，朔平均分布在农历初一的任一时刻，而每次从朔到望的时长有所差异，最短约13.90天，最长约15.61天，平均14.77天，且接近平均值的概率更大。由于朔望平均间隔略大于14.5天，望落在农历十五、十六的概率最高，且十六月圆的概率略大于十五月圆。而在更少数情况下，望可能会“晚点”到农历十七，或“提早”到农历十四。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">“以中秋月圆为例，2000年到2099年的100年间，有48次中秋月是‘十六圆’，37次‘十五圆’，15次‘十七圆’，这一期间没有‘十四圆’。<span style="outline: 0px; color: rgb(123, 12, 0);"><strong style="outline: 0px;">今年中秋是自2021年起，连续第三年‘十五的月亮十五圆’。下一次中秋月‘十五圆’要等到2030年。”</strong></span>王科超说。</span></p><p><br/></p></section><section style="font-size: 17px; 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